Kathy Hochul for Congress

The Buffalo News
By Editorial Board
May 14, 2011, 10:49 PM

The race to win the congressional seat vacated by former Rep. Chris Lee, R-Clarence, features three main candidates, one of whom — businessman Jack Davis — remains primarily focused on a single issue, free trade. The other two — Erie County Clerk Kathleen Hochul and Assemblywoman Jane Corwin — are each well-suited to the job at hand, but we have a narrow but clear preference for Hochul.

Both women are capable and well informed. Both cite the federal budget deficit as a commanding issue, and both understand the need to fix the financial problems facing Medicare, the health care program for seniors.

But Hochul has a more rounded grasp on the role of government in the 21st century. She understands health care for seniors to be an appropriate federal issue, while Corwin does not. More conservative than even many Republicans in Western New York, Corwin holds a pinched view of Washington’s role in public life, restricting it to issues such as defense, transportation and food safety.

In meeting with The Buffalo News editorial board, she didn’t specifically say that issues such as health, education and the environment were inappropriate for government, but the implication was clear. She supports the Republican proposal for Medicare, which would turn it into a voucher system. To be sure, Medicare needs to be fixed to preserve it for future beneficiaries, but not this way.

Frankly, if the goal were simply to cut the deficit, Corwin, of Clarence, would be the choice. She brings the business person’s approach to government in much the same way as her mentor, Erie County Executive Chris Collins. But that shouldn’t be the only goal.

The aim must be to gain control of the deficit while protecting the environment, ensuring medical care for seniors, setting standards for education and, yes, defending the nation, facilitating transportation and keeping our food supply safe.

That requires political skill and an ability to balance the role of government with the hard facts of arithmetic. Hochul is clearly better suited to that task, and she brings years of experience with her.

As a public servant, Hochul streamlined the county clerk’s office and expanded services. She has made one of the bugaboos of all drivers — dealing with the local DMV — a more satisfying experience by shortening wait times and focusing on customer service. She takes pride in having criticized the plans of fellow Democrats: former Gov. Eliot Spitzer for proposing to give driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants and former Gov. David Paterson for planning to mandate new license plates in the midst of a recession.

Davis is making his fourth run for Congress — previously as a Democrat but this time, after being rebuffed by the Republicans, as an independent Tea Party candidate. He is passionately opposed to free trade, the issue that drove his previous campaigns. We admire his passion but doubt his approach.

His prescription for the deficit is not to cut domestic spending, but to “level the playing field” on trade, thus putting unemployed Americans back to work and creating sufficient tax revenue to refill Washington’s coffers. To help in that quest, he would also eliminate foreign aid to “countries that hate us,” halt military action in Libya and bring troops home from Iraq and Afghanistan.

Some voters are responding to that message — enough that Republicans are worried about Corwin’s prospects — but it’s a tunnel-vision view of the nation’s vexing problems.

In the end, the decision on which candidate to support hinges on which one you think will better represent the interests of Western New Yorkers and the nation.

Both Corwin and Hochul have made an issue of the deficit, but Hochul’s skills and record suggest a deeper understanding of the role of government in modern life. Changes need to be made, and soon. Hochul is the candidate with the best ability to push for those changes while guarding against an assault on the role of government itself.

Greece Post
By Editorial Board
May 12, 2011, 1:44 PM

The unexpected resignation this winter of former Rep. Christopher Lee, R-Amherst, left his sprawling western New York district, which includes the town of Greece, up for grabs.

A special election on May 24 will decide who will serve the remainder of Lee’s term, which runs through next year. What happens after that is anybody’s guess, since New York will be losing two congressional seats as a result of the 2010 Census, and Greece’s new representative — barring any more surprise departures — will be the shortest-serving among the state’s delegation.

But first things first. District voters this month will choose from among four candidates: Republican state Assemblywoman Jane Corwin, Democratic Erie County Clerk Kathy Hochul, millionaire Tea Party candidate Jack Davis and Green Party candidate Ian Murphy.

Greece residents would be best served by Kathy Hochul.

Murphy declined to take part in the Greece Post’s endorsement interviews. Davis is an idea guy with a lot of spunk but, like many business leaders who turn an eye toward politics, he does not demonstrate a penchant for consensus-building.

Corwin is a knowledgeable candidate who pledges to work across the aisle. But her knowledge of local issues was not as deep as Hochul’s. In addition, Corwin gave the impression that business interests would be first among equals among her constituency. A question about Medicare was answered almost entirely through the prism of how health care costs affect business. Absolutely, they do. But they affect children and single parents and the elderly as well.

Hochul was well-versed on the issues facing Greece, from the police force to town government, and vowed to meet with the school district’s new superintendent, Barbara Deane-Williams, to discuss educational priorities.

She also has a demonstrated record of political independence. While Corwin worked with Democratic colleagues to get bills to the floor — a must in the Democratic-controlled state Assembly — Hochul took on her own party leader. When former Gov. David Paterson offered up an ill-conceived proposal to force New Yorkers to buy new license plates, she was among his vocal opponents.

When we endorsed Republican Lee last October, we cited his attention to hometown issues and his relative lack of partisanship.

Of those seeking to succeed him, Kathy Hochul offers the best hope for offering the type of close-to-home attention and independent thinking that would most benefit the 26th District in general, and the town of Greece in particular.

A by-election may be a referendum on the Republicans’ health plans

The Economist
May 12th 2011

NEW YORK is a blue state. Its governor, Andrew Cuomo, is a Democrat, as are its two senators. But chunks of it are very conservative, such as the reliably Republican 26th congressional district in western New York. It spans the suburbs of Buffalo, across hundreds of acres of farmland, to the suburbs of Rochester. Registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats there by around 30,000. George Bush handily won the district in 2004, though he lost the state by 19 points. In 2008 it was one of only four New York districts that voted for John McCain over Barack Obama. Chris Lee, the Republican who had represented the district since 2008, won a whopping 74% of the vote at the 2010 mid-term election. He stepped down in February after a gossip website posted shirtless pictures he had sent to a woman he had met on Craigslist.

The special election (as Americans call a by-election) to fill the Craigslist congressman’s empty seat will take place on May 24th. Jane Corwin, a wealthy conservative member of the state Assembly, should on past form be a shoo-in, but recent polls indicate she has an unexpected battle on her hands. According to one recent poll Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, is just a few points behind Ms Corwin, and another shows her in the lead. Jack Davis, the self-financed independent “tea-party” candidate, is also performing solidly in the polls. At first glance it appears that Mr Davis, a former Republican who also ran (unsuccessfully) for office as a Democrat, may be siphoning support away from Ms Corwin.

But the fall in Ms Corwin’s support could be more because of her endorsement of Paul Ryan’s proposal to replace Medicare, the public health-care scheme for the elderly, with diminishing government subsidies for private insurance. Her opponent, Ms Hochul, has made Medicare the main issue of her campaign. “We can alter the national debate with one election,” she says. Voting for her, she claims, would send a message to Republicans in Washington. She has received the backing of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, which previously campaigned for the Republican who represented the area until 2008. Her message is going down well in the district, where almost a quarter of voters are over 65 and almost two-thirds are over 45.

A loss in the 26th would be a huge embarrassment for the Republicans, suggesting that many other seats might be at risk in 2012. So the party has been pumping money into the race, and has also started to send in the heavy artillery. Eric Cantor, the House majority leader, campaigned for Ms Corwin last week, and John Boehner, the speaker of the House, appeared at a Corwin fund-raising lunch on May 9th. He said there that the “Democrats are hoping they can steal this election so they can continue to move their agenda, which is more taxes and higher spending.” This got loud jeers from the faithful, but it remains to be seen whether ordinary elderly voters will agree.

The turnout tends to be low in special elections, as elsewhere; but politicians can usually depend on older voters to make the effort. In the 26th district, the voting intentions of the elderly have never been more important.

The Daily News Online
By Roger Muehlig
May 6, 2011, 12:41 AM

BATAVIA — Democrat Kathy Hochul dismissed being portrayed as a tax-and-spend liberal as “politics” and said she’s a pragmatist who is open to good ideas no matter which side of the political aisle they come from.

“You can’t label me anything,” Hochul said during a stop at The Daily News Thursday.

Hochul, the Erie County clerk, is in a race with Republican Assemblywoman Jane Corwin, independent businessman Jack Davis and Green Party candidate Ian Murphy for the 26th Congressional District seat vacated by Chris Lee in February.

The generally GOP district stretches across seven counties, including all of Genesee and Wyoming, most of Orleans and parts of Erie, Niagara, Monroe and Livingston. At least one poll has Corwin leading, but Hochul only a few percentage points behind.

Hochul, who lives in Hamburg, said her priorities, if she gets to Washington, would include getting the federal debt under control, doing everything she can to help small businesses and protecting a Medicare program that is being scrutinized for change.

Unlike her Republican opponent, Hochul said she would not support turning the healthcare program for senior citizens and the disabled “into a voucher program.”

“You can’t decimate a program that seniors have come to rely on,” she said.

Medicare, she said, “can be streamlined without being decimated.”

A good start, she said, would be reigning in high medical costs in general. “Let’s get that under control.”

Hochul, who is married to Western District U.S. Attorney William Hochul, said she opposes tax breaks for the wealthy, but thinks raising taxes on Americans making more than $250,000 a year is going too far. She’d see a much higher threshhold.

There are a lot of small business owners making $200,000 a year, she said.

“These are people who just want to grow their business. I don’t think they should be treated like they’re super wealthy.”

Hochul also mentioned opposing then-Gov. Spitzer’s plan to allow illegal aliens to have driver’s licenses and later opposing Gov. Paterson’s plan to raise money by requiring new state license plates.

She didn’t take a strong position on wind turbines. “Well, they’re here,’’ she said.

But if so, she thought that host communities should benefit, perhaps from reduced power costs.

Hochul also spoke of streamlining the guest worker program for farms, promised to look out for farmers that she said are being highly impacted by rising fuel costs, and said she would be a “strong advocate for this area” in general.

“I just want a chance to prove I’m a different sort of Democrat,” she said.

Hochul doesn’t live in the district, but said that hasn’t been much of a campaign issue and that she would move in as soon as she could if she is elected.

“We’ll be ready to go as soon as possible,” she said.

The New York Times
By Raymond Hernandez
May 6, 2011

Only weeks ago, top Democrats appeared to have all but written off a special election for a Congressional seat in the suburbs of Buffalo. After all, Republican voters vastly outnumber Democrats in the district, and the Republican candidate, Jane L. Corwin, a well-liked state assemblywoman, seemed to be a shoo-in.

Then along came Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin. Mr. Ryan, a top House Republican, released a plan calling for the most extensive overhaul of Medicare since it was created.

That, it seems, has significantly changed the contest in New York’s 26th Congressional District.

After leveling a barrage of attacks against the proposal put forth by Mr. Ryan, the Democratic candidate, Kathy Hochul, has tightened the race considerably, even as her Republican opponent remained supportive of the plan, perhaps out of concern that distancing herself from it would alienate conservatives.

The shifting dynamics of the race, which have emboldened top Democrats and their allies, underscore the intense reaction to Mr. Ryan’s proposal, the centerpiece of a budget that House Republicans voted to approve in April to address the nation’s long-term financial problems.

More than that, though, the May 24 special election is suddenly shaping up as the first electoral test of the Republican agenda — and of the likely themes in the battle next year between both major parties for control of the House.

“The Republican vote to end Medicare has moved the needle in this race,” said Representative Steve Israel of Long Island, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “The Republican should be running away with this. Instead, she is clinging to a minuscule lead.”

But Republicans argue that Democrats are deliberately distorting what the Ryan plan would mean for Medicare. They also contend that Ms. Corwin’s message — about the need to rein in spending and the national debt — will ultimately win the day.

“They are trying to scare seniors,” Matthew Harakal, a spokesman for Ms. Corwin, said.

Mr. Ryan’s proposal would transform Medicare into a program that subsidizes health coverage for older Americans, eliminating the direct payment for medical care that the federal government currently provides. In addition, the Republican plan would end the federal guarantee of health care benefits for retirees by turning Medicare into a grant program for states, leaving open the possibility that governors and legislatures would cut back in tough fiscal times.

The House Republican plan to fundamentally revamp Medicare has resonated in the 26th District, where a majority of registered voters are 45 or older. The district, which stretches from the western suburbs of Rochester, through dairy farming country, to small villages and towns northeast of Buffalo, is one of New York’s more conservative regions, with roughly 30,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats.

In the 2002 redistricting process, Republican leaders in Albany ensured that the district was packed with Republican voters to help Thomas M. Reynolds, an influential Republican who represented the district then, to maintain the kind of conservative voting record that would help him rise in Washington’s Republican hierarchy.

When Mr. Reynolds retired in 2008, he was replaced by Christopher Lee, a Republican businessman who won the seat handily. But Mr. Lee abruptly resigned in February after he e-mailed a woman a shirtless photo of himself that appeared on the Web.

Initially, the special election to replace Mr. Lee did not attract much attention outside the district, partly because Republicans were widely expected to hold the seat. John McCain defeated Barack Obama here in 2008, and the district has been in Republican hands for decades.

But last month, Ms. Hochul’s campaign sought to put Ms. Corwin on the defensive after Republicans in Washington approved the budget plan to overhaul Medicare. Over several days in early April, Ms. Hochul, the clerk for Erie County, which includes Buffalo, called on Ms. Corwin and Jack Davis, a millionaire businessman running with Tea Party support, to reject the plan.

Ms. Hochul ran a weeklong television advertising campaign accusing Ms. Corwin of backing an effort that would end Medicare while providing tax breaks to the rich.

But even as some House Republicans have started to express doubts about the wisdom of trying to push the Ryan plan this year, Ms. Corwin has vigorously defended it, arguing it places Medicare on sound financial footing. “This protects the Medicare program and ensures that there are benefits for future generations,” she said during a recent stop last month in Rochester, according to The Democrat and Chronicle of Rochester.

Still, Ms. Hochul’s message seems to strike a chord in the district, where the race has become much closer than experts in either party had expected. A recent Siena College poll of likely voters, for example, indicated that Ms. Corwin and Ms. Hochul are in a tight race. Ms. Corwin leads by only five points, within the poll’s margin of error.

The poll found that 59 percent of respondents said they opposed reining in federal spending by cutting entitlement programs like Medicare. Only 38 percent said they supported such spending cuts to trim the deficit.

Marsha Sherris, 61, a real estate broker in the district, seems to epitomize the challenge for Ms. Corwin. A registered Republican, Ms. Sherris said that she was troubled about the Republican Medicare proposal and that it might ultimately influence her vote in the special election.

“Maybe I would go Democrat,” Ms. Sherris said on Main Street in Williamsville. “We have to worry about the seniors. They are the ones who supported this country all this time.”

The race is complicated by the presence of Mr. Davis, a former Democrat who failed in his bid for the Republican nomination and is now running on the Tea Party line. While Mr. Davis appears to be draining support from both candidates, he is doing more damage to Ms. Corwin, according to Steven Greenberg, a polling expert for Siena College.

Republican strategists say that once Republican voters learn of Mr. Davis’s Democratic past, they will get behind Ms. Corwin.

But Ms. Hochul says the Ryan Medicare plan has had a significant effect. “The Paul Ryan budget has given us the opportunity to show the different priorities between the candidates,” she said. “It’s created a clear choice.”

The Hill
By Sean Miller
May 3, 2011, 3:52 PM

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) has emerged as one of the most prominent supporters of New York House candidate Kathy Hochul.

Washington Democrats have been keeping their distance from Hochul, the party’s nominee in the May 24 special election for former Rep. Chris Lee’s (R-N.Y.) seat. Meanwhile, Republicans leaders including Rep. Pete Sessions (Texas) and Speaker John Boehner (Ohio) have lent their backing to the GOP nominee, Jane Corwin.

Gillibrand, a former upstate congresswoman, sent a fundraising pitch on Hochul’s behalf and teamed with the pro-choice group EMILY’s List to urge activists to lend their support.

“Kathy is an extraordinary candidate,” Gillibrand said Tuesday during a Web forum hosted by EMILY’s List. “I know she can win this race.”

Sign up to volunteer, “and give her $5,” Gillibrand encouraged viewers.

In an email pitch, Gillibrand noted Hochul faces “two deep-pocketed conservative self-funders” — state lawmaker Corwin and independent Jack Davis — who are “spending whatever it takes to win.” She asked for supporters to donate to Hochul’s campaign.

The three-way element of the race could be beneficial to Hochul. A rift among conservatives helped Democrats win the special election in New York’s 23rd district in November 2009.

The 26th district race remains close. In a recent poll by Siena College, Corwin led with support from 36 percent of likely voters, Hochul was backed by 31 percent and Davis, who is running on the Tea Party line, had the support of 23 percent of respondents.

Politico
By David Catanese
April 29, 2011

The first public poll in the special election for New York’s 26th Congressional District shows a closer-than-expected race, with Republican Jane Corwin clinging to a small lead over Democrat Kathy Hochul.

Corwin tops Hochul 36 percent to 31 percent in a new Siena College Research Institute poll released Friday, but independent tea party candidate Jack Davis is proving to be a potent force, siphoning away 23 percent of voters.

“In a district with a 7-point edge for Republicans among enrolled voters and years of Republican representation, Corwin’s support lags behind Republican enrollment, while Hochul’s nearly matches Democratic enrollment,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg in a statement.

Both Corwin and Hochul hold identical favorable ratings, but a plurality of voters think Corwin is running the most negative campaign.

At 42 percent, Davis’s favorable rating falls just 2 points behind Corwin and Hochul.

The poll of 484 likely voters was taken April 26-27 and has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

PenfieldPost.com
By Alysa Stryker
April 29, 2011, 4:49 PM

Greece, N.Y. — A Sienna College 26th Congressional District poll released today shows a tight special election race among four candidates running to fill former Republican Congressman Chris Lee’s seat.

The survey was conducted on April 26 and 27 by telephone calls to 484 likely voters drawn from 801 registered voter households. When voters were asked who they would vote for if the election were today, results show 36 percent for Republican Jane Corwin, 31 percent for Democrat Kathy Hochul, 23 percent for Independent Jack Davis, and one percent for Green Party candidate Ian Murphy.

According to the survey, voters rank the federal budget deficit (34 percent) and jobs (24 percent) as the two most important issues, followed by health care (13 percent), taxes (11 percent), America’s military involvement overseas (8 percent), and education (5 percent).

Voters who wish to vote for the next representative of the 26th Congressional District seat will have until May 13 to register in person, and will vote on May 24.

The Hill
By Shane D’Aprile
April 29, 2011, 10:12 AM

In a House special election contest that has drawn next to no interest so far from national Democrats, a new poll shows New York Democrat Kathy Hochul down just five points to Republican Jane Corwin.

New numbers from Siena College, released Friday, show Corwin with 36 percent to Hochul’s 31. Third-party candidate Jack Davis, who’s running on the “Tea Party” line, is pulling 23 percent of the vote.

The May 24 special election will fill the seat of ex-Rep. Chris Lee (R-N.Y.), who resigned earlier this year in the wake of an online scandal.

The numbers add some fuel to the argument that Davis, a wealthy industrialist, could be a spoiler for the GOP. Earlier this year, he sought the GOP’s nomination in the special election, but was rebuffed and managed to gather enough signatures to run on the “Tea Party” line.

According to the poll, Davis’s support is split relatively equally among Democrats, Republicans and independents. Twenty percent of Davis supporters are Democrats, 24 percent are Republicans and 27 percent are self-described independents.

The poll mirrors the scenario some Democratic operatives have been pushing: Hochul has an opening if Davis gains some traction and pulls GOP votes away from Corwin. In that case, they argue, the race would resemble the 2009 special election in New York’s 23rd district, where a rift between conservatives and establishment Republicans aided Democrat Bill Owens.

EMILY’s List has already weighed in on behalf of Hochul, suggesting just that. In a statement endorsing Hochul last week, EMILY’s List President Stephanie Schriock argued, “In a special election where millionaire opponents could split the vote, Kathy’s strong candidacy gives Democrats an excellent opportunity to take back a GOP-held seat.”

The group will use its list of donors and activists to offer Hochul some much-needed fundraising help. Hochul had just $306,000 cash on hand as of the end of last month, compared to more than $500,000 for Corwin.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has yet to make any moves to boost Hochul, but given numbers that show the Democrat within striking distance of Corwin, the committee is sure to face pressure to weigh in.

National Republicans, meanwhile, do plan to get involved in the race.

The chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, Rep. Pete Sessions (Texas), is set to travel to the district later this month for a fundraiser and campaign rally with Corwin. House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) is expected to do the same in May.

The Siena poll surveyed 484 likely voters and has a margin of error of 4.5 percent.

National Journal
By Jessica Taylor and Steven Shepard
April 29, 2011, 9:30 AM

A special election in New York’s 26th Congressional District is a much closer contest than once thought, with Republican Jane Corwin leading Democrat Kathy Hochul by only five points in a new poll released early Friday.

Corwin, a state assemblywoman, takes 36 percent support in the Siena College poll, while Hochul, the Erie County Clerk, draws 31 percent. Wealthy businessman Jack Davis, a former Democrat running as a Tea Party candidate, earns the backing of 23 percent of likely voters, and his support appears to come at the expense of both major-party candidates; 20 percent of Democrats and 24 percent of Republicans support Davis.

Blogger Ian Murphy, running on the Green Party line, earns just one percent, and nine percent of voters are undecided with less than a month to go until the special election on May 24.

Democrats have been downplaying their chances in the district, which spans from the Rochester suburbs to the outskirts of Buffalo. The media often leaps upon special election results as indicators of the national political atmosphere, even though most strategists agree those special elections are hardly indicative of wider trends. But such close polling results opens both sides to the risk of losing; Democrats face an uphill fight in the district, one of just four in the state to have favored John McCain over President Obama in 2008.

The new survey suggests the race is eminently winnable, which could force both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee to get involved. And if they get involved, the losing side takes the blame, no matter how harsh the political climate.

Corwin and Hochul have identical favorable/unfavorable splits, suggesting that they are known by roughly the same number of voters. Both candidates are viewed favorably by 44 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 31 percent. A quarter of likely voters has no opinion of each candidate.

Voters are more divided on Davis, with virtually equal numbers viewing him favorably and unfavorably; 18 percent did not have an opinion of Davis, who is no stranger to voters in the district, having run against then-Rep. Tom Reynolds (R) twice as the Democratic nominee. Davis sought the GOP nomination for the special election, but after being passed over for Corwin, he instead petitioned his way onto the ballot as an independent and ran on his own tea party line — though some Tea Party groups in the region haven’t been convinced of his change of heart.

Davis, who has pledged to spend up to $3 million of his own money, is using his own fortune to finance his whole campaign. Corwin also has her own personal wealth to tap and gave her campaign $1 million as of the last reporting period. Meanwhile, Hochul has raised over $350,000. While Hochul has gotten the endorsement of the pro-choice women’s group EMILY’s List — not know to back a candidate even in an uphill race unless they have a chance of winning — the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has so far remained on the sidelines, saying repeatedly they’re still evaluating the race and whether they will go in and lend support to Hochul.

The Siena poll also explores some of the major issues in the campaign. Likely voters favor repealing the health care law passed last year, 58 percent to 36 percent. Thirty-four percent said their most important issue was federal budget deficit, followed by jobs at 24 percent and health care at 13 percent.

But according to the poll, Hochul’s recent TV ad challenging House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) budget plan and its changes to Medicare — the first of its kind from a Democratic candidate — could resonate with voters. A sizable majority, 59 percent, opposes “cutting federal spending by lessening entitlements like Medicare and Social Security,” while only 38 percent supports those spending cuts. Hochul’s ad began running Tuesday, just as the poll went into the field, but Hochul has been pressing Corwin specifically over her support of the Ryan plan for weeks. Davis has also said he opposes the Ryan plan and any changes to Medicare.

Voters also seemed turned off by negative attacks from candidates. Corwin’s second television ad branded Hochul as Nancy Pelosi’s “hand-picked candidate” — a familiar attack used by Republicans across the country in 2010. Twenty-seven percent said they believed Corwin was running the most negative campaign, followed by 18 percent for Hochul and 13 percent for Davis. It’s not a significant margin — and when asked who was running the most positive campaign, the results were also mixed. Twenty-nine percent said Hochul was running the most positive campaign, while 26 percent said Davis, and 22 percent said Corwin.

The district’s Republican lean is on display in this nugget: 46 percent believe that Corwin is the most likely winner of the special election, compared to just 26 percent of voters who believe that Hochul is more likely to win. Just 14 percent pick Davis as the more probable victor. A 53 percent majority also said they’d rather have their new member side with House Speaker John Boehner; 36 percent answered Obama and the Democrats.

The poll was conducted April 26 and 27; 484 likely special election voters were surveyed, for a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent.