Kathy Hochul for Congress

The Washington Post
By Phillip Rucker
May 15, 2011

AMHERST, N.Y. — Special congressional elections tend to be sleepy affairs, campaigns so condensed and out of step with the normal political calendar that they’re often missed. But they can be mirrors of the national moment, too, and that’s what’s happening in the suburbs of Buffalo and Rochester, where a race to fill a vacant U.S. House seat has turned into a referendum on the Republican plan to overhaul Medicare.

Sensing an unexpected opportunity for a Democratic rebound from last year’s losses, Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) flew here Sunday morning and moved from table to table at the Family Tree Restaurant, hovering over eggs, sausage links and pancakes to deliver a simple message.

“If you care about Medicare and want to keep Medicare as it is, she’s your person,” Schumer, the Democrats’ message man in Washington, said as he introduced diners to Democrat Kathy Hochul. “Her opponent wants to just dismantle it.”

At the next table: “If you’re gonna have Medicare one of these days, she’s fighting to keep it.”

And the next: “Her opponent will change it so you wouldn’t even recognize it.”

This, Democrats believe, is how Hochul just might do what seemed unthinkable a few weeks ago: win in one of the nation’s more inhospitable places for Democrats.

This is also the formula Democrats plan to use next year, when Republicans will face voters for the first time after backing a plan by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) that would turn Medicare into a private voucher system.

Changing Medicare, the centerpiece of Ryan’s plan, is deeply unpopular across the country, according to public polls. The backlash to it in this economically struggling district, where registered voters are older than the national average, has turned an unusual three-way race into a dead heat.

Thus, what happens here ahead of the May 24 election will set the terms for both parties’ campaign playbooks heading into the 2012 battle for control of the House and Senate.

Aware of the stakes, the national parties have poured money into the race, outside groups are flooding local airwaves, and Democratic and Republican leaders are taking an active role.

Ryan recently sent a plea to his supporters to raise money for Assemblywoman Jane L. Corwin, the Republican candidate. House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) hosted a fundraiser for Corwin here. And House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) appeared at a Hochul fundraiser in Manhattan on Friday night.

‘A line in the sand’

Corwin said that she would have voted for Ryan’s budget and that Medicare needs to fundamentally change if it is to remain solvent.

“If you don’t do this, Medicare is going to go bankrupt by 2024,” Corwin said in an interview. “If we ignore it like Kathy Hochul wants to do, it’ll run out of money. . . . Actually, she’s the one who’s advocating for eliminating Medicare because she’s saying don’t do anything.”

Diane Few, 56, a Republican, said she is worried about any cuts to Medicare benefits but would vote for Corwin. “If you just listen to the newscasts, she’s going to delete Medicare,” Few said. “But I trust her. I sure hope it’s not true because I’m getting up there.”

Hochul, the Erie County clerk, said overhauling Medicare is “a line in the sand” that she would not cross. Instead, Hochul wants to eliminate corporate tax loopholes and raise taxes on income of more than $500,000.

“That resonates with people struggling in this district and the small businesses in Main Street who don’t think they’re getting a fair shake,” Hochul said in an interview.

The third candidate, tea-party-backed independent Jack Davis, said he would have voted against Ryan’s budget because he wanted deeper spending cuts and does not support overhauling Medicare.

Corwin had been the heavy favorite to win the seat left vacant by Rep. Chris Lee (R), who abruptly resigned in February when a shirtless photo that he took of himself and e-mailed to a romantic interest on Craigslist surfaced on the Internet.

But Corwin has been hamstrung by Davis, another multimillionaire self-funder who appears to be siphoning off Republican votes. A late April poll by Siena College showed Corwin leading with 36 percent, followed by Hochul at 31 percent and Davis at 23 percent. One week later, a survey commissioned by the liberal Web site Daily Kos showed Hochul leading Corwin by four points.

That Hochul is viable is surprising. In 2010, tea-party-backed Republican Carl Paladino carried this district with 61 percent of the vote despite losing the governor’s race in a landslide.

A political sideshow

An intramural fight between the Corwin and Davis campaigns has devolved into a sideshow fit for the downstate tabloids.

On Wednesday, Corwin’s chief of staff, Michael Mallia, went to a Davis event featuring veterans and badgered Davis, a 78-year-old Marine Corps veteran. Davis said the aide called him a “coward” and, with his camera rolling, Davis shoved the camera and threatened to punch Mallia.

Corwin said she neither authorized the act nor disciplined Mal­lia; she said he was acting on his personal time.

Asked in an interview what he thinks of Corwin, Davis said: “At a fundraiser, she’s very smiley, quite beautiful and very social. But as a congressman, she will not be fighting for the working men and women of this district.”

Davis’s campaign manager, Curtis Ellis, was more blunt. “She’s a Barbie doll,” Ellis said in an interview. “She’s a talking-point vessel. They just fill her up with words and she spits them out.”

As if the race needed more of the bizarre, Donald Trump weighed in last week. He preemptively blamed any Corwin loss here on the Ryan proposal. “She’s having a hard time defending that whole situation with Medicare,” Trump told reporters in New Hampshire. “The Democrats, you talk about demagogue, are doing a number on that plan unlike anything I’ve ever seen.”

On Saturday morning, Hochul visited a 19th-century meetinghouse in the quaint village of Williamsville to remind a few dozen female supporters what’s at stake in this election for Medicare.

Janice Dunne, 73, a Democrat sitting in the front bench, said she remembered before Medicare became the issue in this election. It was shortly after the Ryan budget passed, and Hochul was holding a small fundraiser.

“I said, ‘Kathy, you’ve got to talk about this Ryan plan,’ ” Dunne said. “And Kathy said, ‘Janice, the commercial’s coming out tomorrow.’ ”

ERIE COUNTY – Kathy Hochul today received the endorsement of United States Senator Charles Schumer in her race for New York’s 26th Congressional District.

New York’s senior Senator accredited the endorsement to Hochul’s strong ties to Western New York, her plan to help small businesses create jobs for hard-working, Western New York families, and her fight to protect Medicare.

“I’m for Kathy Hochul for three reasons,” said Senator Schumer. “First, there’s no one who will be a stronger fighter for Western New York than Kathy. It’s in her bones, she’s shown it at the local level and she’ll bring that same approach to the national level. Second, she understands we have to cut the deficit but knows that we have to grow jobs in Western New York at the same time. Kathy will bring a balanced approach by cutting waste where we must, but not cutting aid to families to help them send their kids to college, or funding for cancer research, which the Ryan budget that her opponent supports would do. And finally, perhaps most importantly, this race has become a national referendum on Medicare. Kathy Hochul wants to preserve the program, but her opponent supports the Ryan plan to kill Medicare, which would place a huge burden on seniors. Kathy Hochul is a true fighter for the middle class, and I know she has what it takes to stand up for Western New York in Congress.”

“The support of Senator Schumer means so much to me,” said Hochul. “I am deeply honored to have his support, as well as the support of so many other Members of Congress. Once elected, I look forward to working with Senator Schumer, Senator Gillibrand and the rest of New York’s congressional delegation, in protecting Medicare and helping small businesses create jobs for hard-working, Western New York families.”

More information about Kathy Hochul can be found at www.KathyHochul.com.

The Rochester Democrat & Chronicle
By Editorial Board
May 15, 2011,

In this era of partisan politics, voters need an independent thinker who will stand up to do what’s right for constituents, regardless of what her party leaders are advocating.

In the 26th Congressional District race, Democrat Kathy Hochul is best suited for the House seat. Hochul is the Democrat and Chronicle’s choice in the May 24 special election. She would capably fill the vacancy in the district that stretches from western New York to Greece. Former Republican Rep. Chris Lee abruptly resigned in February in a scandal involving a woman he met online.

The Editorial Board found laudable qualities in two other candidates — Republican Jane Corwin and perennial contender Jack Davis, a Tea Party representative. But Hochul, who is the Erie County clerk, stood out most for her tenacity and independence — qualities missing all too often on Capitol Hill. A fourth candidate, Ian Murphy of the Green Party, was unimpressive and seemed to relish rattling cages more than devising viable solutions.

Bucks party leaders

Hochul has a long history of being an independent thinker. As Erie County clerk, she defied former Gov. Eliot Spitzer, a fellow Democrat, on his plans to give drivers licenses to illegal immigrants. And she went toe-to-toe with former Gov. David Paterson, also a Democrat, until he relented on plans to increase new license plate fees. Much like Lee, who wasn’t shy about working with then-majority Democrats, she’d try to reach consensus with majority House Republicans.

Hochul also recognizes the need to develop a sound national energy policy, and she would push for more jobs in this region. She understands that small businesses and the University of Rochester can help create those jobs, and she would push for needed assistance.

The 26th District race is in the national spotlight because Hochul strongly opposes GOP plans to replace Medicare with vouchers for private insurance. Hochul reasonably argues that she can’t support “decimation” of the health care program for seniors while Republicans “continue to provide giveaways for rich people.” She seems passionate in her belief that it’s wrong to hand over seniors’ health insurance to private insurers while allowing the “super rich” and corporations to continue to get huge tax breaks.

Conversely, Corwin remains a staunch supporter of the GOP plan, though some Republican leaders are wavering. It’s also unsettling that this could be a sign that Corwin is a strict GOP partisan.
More troubling is that, when Corwin was asked about the handling of the war in Afghanistan, for example, she said she’d “leave it to military leaders.” That sounds too much like free rein.

Creativity needed

Like Hochul, Corwin is an advocate for small business. But too often she was bereft of new ideas. Asked, for instance, about Social Security reform, she seemed caught off guard, even though Republicans have declared war on entitlement programs. However, when prompted, she was amenable to limiting benefits to low- and moderate-income wage earners. Assembly Minority Leader Brian Kolb has praised Corwin as a hard worker, but she needs to develop deeper views on many issues.

Unfortunately, Davis, who is running for the seat for the fourth time, continues to focus his campaign almost solely on the negative effects of free trade. It’s an issue certainly worthy of attention, but so are scores of others.

Hochul has the demonstrated leadership skills, knowledge base and the passion to be just what the 26th District needs in Congress.

Conversely, Corwin remains a staunch supporter of the GOP plan, though some Republican leaders are wavering. It’s also unsettling that this could be a sign that Corwin is a strict GOP partisan.

More troubling is that, when Corwin was asked about the handling of the war in Afghanistan, for example, she said she’d “leave it to military leaders.” That sounds too much like free rein.
Creativity needed

Like Hochul, Corwin is an advocate for small business. But too often she was bereft of new ideas. Asked, for instance, about Social Security reform, she seemed caught off guard, even though Republicans have declared war on entitlement programs. However, when prompted, she was amenable to limiting benefits to low- and moderate-income wage earners. Assembly Minority Leader Brian Kolb has praised Corwin as a hard worker, but she needs to develop deeper views on many issues.

Unfortunately, Davis, who is running for the seat for the fourth time, continues to focus his campaign almost solely on the negative effects of free trade. It’s an issue certainly worthy of attention, but so are scores of others.

Hochul has the demonstrated leadership skills, knowledge base and the passion to be just what the 26th District needs in Congress.

The Buffalo News
By Editorial Board
May 14, 2011, 10:49 PM

The race to win the congressional seat vacated by former Rep. Chris Lee, R-Clarence, features three main candidates, one of whom — businessman Jack Davis — remains primarily focused on a single issue, free trade. The other two — Erie County Clerk Kathleen Hochul and Assemblywoman Jane Corwin — are each well-suited to the job at hand, but we have a narrow but clear preference for Hochul.

Both women are capable and well informed. Both cite the federal budget deficit as a commanding issue, and both understand the need to fix the financial problems facing Medicare, the health care program for seniors.

But Hochul has a more rounded grasp on the role of government in the 21st century. She understands health care for seniors to be an appropriate federal issue, while Corwin does not. More conservative than even many Republicans in Western New York, Corwin holds a pinched view of Washington’s role in public life, restricting it to issues such as defense, transportation and food safety.

In meeting with The Buffalo News editorial board, she didn’t specifically say that issues such as health, education and the environment were inappropriate for government, but the implication was clear. She supports the Republican proposal for Medicare, which would turn it into a voucher system. To be sure, Medicare needs to be fixed to preserve it for future beneficiaries, but not this way.

Frankly, if the goal were simply to cut the deficit, Corwin, of Clarence, would be the choice. She brings the business person’s approach to government in much the same way as her mentor, Erie County Executive Chris Collins. But that shouldn’t be the only goal.

The aim must be to gain control of the deficit while protecting the environment, ensuring medical care for seniors, setting standards for education and, yes, defending the nation, facilitating transportation and keeping our food supply safe.

That requires political skill and an ability to balance the role of government with the hard facts of arithmetic. Hochul is clearly better suited to that task, and she brings years of experience with her.

As a public servant, Hochul streamlined the county clerk’s office and expanded services. She has made one of the bugaboos of all drivers — dealing with the local DMV — a more satisfying experience by shortening wait times and focusing on customer service. She takes pride in having criticized the plans of fellow Democrats: former Gov. Eliot Spitzer for proposing to give driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants and former Gov. David Paterson for planning to mandate new license plates in the midst of a recession.

Davis is making his fourth run for Congress — previously as a Democrat but this time, after being rebuffed by the Republicans, as an independent Tea Party candidate. He is passionately opposed to free trade, the issue that drove his previous campaigns. We admire his passion but doubt his approach.

His prescription for the deficit is not to cut domestic spending, but to “level the playing field” on trade, thus putting unemployed Americans back to work and creating sufficient tax revenue to refill Washington’s coffers. To help in that quest, he would also eliminate foreign aid to “countries that hate us,” halt military action in Libya and bring troops home from Iraq and Afghanistan.

Some voters are responding to that message — enough that Republicans are worried about Corwin’s prospects — but it’s a tunnel-vision view of the nation’s vexing problems.

In the end, the decision on which candidate to support hinges on which one you think will better represent the interests of Western New Yorkers and the nation.

Both Corwin and Hochul have made an issue of the deficit, but Hochul’s skills and record suggest a deeper understanding of the role of government in modern life. Changes need to be made, and soon. Hochul is the candidate with the best ability to push for those changes while guarding against an assault on the role of government itself.

The following is a statement from Fabien Levy, Director of Communications for Kathy Hochul for Congress:

“Last night, Representative Paul Ryan sent out a fundraising plea in support of Jane Corwin and her endorsement of the Republican-endorsed budget that would decimate Medicare.

“Jane Corwin and the Republicans in Washington are out of touch with the voters of this district, including the thousands of Republicans. And on May 24th, voters will not only reject Jane Corwin’s plan to decimate Medicare, but they will reject her.”

More information about Kathy Hochul can be found at www.KathyHochul.com.

ERIE COUNTY – Kathy Hochul, candidate for New York’s 26th Congressional District, has reported raising more than $220,000 in her Pre-Special filing, more than doubling that number with $240,000 since May 5.

In the report filed with the Federal Elections Commission yesterday, Hochul showed that more than 90% of donors came from within New York State. Since April 1, Hochul has had more than 6,000 donors.

The campaign has now raised more than $750,000, making it by far the most grassroots oriented campaign, with 96% of donors giving at the $250 level or below.

“The outpouring of support for Kathy Hochul’s campaign shows that our message is resonating with voters here in the district,” said Fabien Levy, Communications Director for Kathy Hochul for Congress. “To date, we have nearly outraised our nearest competitor by two times, proving while other candidates may be willing to spend their personal fortunes to buy this seat, Kathy Hochul will rely on the support of individuals to help her cross the finish line. Voters in the 26th District are speaking up and the message is clear – they want Kathy Hochul in Congress.”

More information about Kathy Hochul can be found at www.KathyHochul.com.

Greece Post
By Editorial Board
May 12, 2011, 1:44 PM

The unexpected resignation this winter of former Rep. Christopher Lee, R-Amherst, left his sprawling western New York district, which includes the town of Greece, up for grabs.

A special election on May 24 will decide who will serve the remainder of Lee’s term, which runs through next year. What happens after that is anybody’s guess, since New York will be losing two congressional seats as a result of the 2010 Census, and Greece’s new representative — barring any more surprise departures — will be the shortest-serving among the state’s delegation.

But first things first. District voters this month will choose from among four candidates: Republican state Assemblywoman Jane Corwin, Democratic Erie County Clerk Kathy Hochul, millionaire Tea Party candidate Jack Davis and Green Party candidate Ian Murphy.

Greece residents would be best served by Kathy Hochul.

Murphy declined to take part in the Greece Post’s endorsement interviews. Davis is an idea guy with a lot of spunk but, like many business leaders who turn an eye toward politics, he does not demonstrate a penchant for consensus-building.

Corwin is a knowledgeable candidate who pledges to work across the aisle. But her knowledge of local issues was not as deep as Hochul’s. In addition, Corwin gave the impression that business interests would be first among equals among her constituency. A question about Medicare was answered almost entirely through the prism of how health care costs affect business. Absolutely, they do. But they affect children and single parents and the elderly as well.

Hochul was well-versed on the issues facing Greece, from the police force to town government, and vowed to meet with the school district’s new superintendent, Barbara Deane-Williams, to discuss educational priorities.

She also has a demonstrated record of political independence. While Corwin worked with Democratic colleagues to get bills to the floor — a must in the Democratic-controlled state Assembly — Hochul took on her own party leader. When former Gov. David Paterson offered up an ill-conceived proposal to force New Yorkers to buy new license plates, she was among his vocal opponents.

When we endorsed Republican Lee last October, we cited his attention to hometown issues and his relative lack of partisanship.

Of those seeking to succeed him, Kathy Hochul offers the best hope for offering the type of close-to-home attention and independent thinking that would most benefit the 26th District in general, and the town of Greece in particular.

A by-election may be a referendum on the Republicans’ health plans

The Economist
May 12th 2011

NEW YORK is a blue state. Its governor, Andrew Cuomo, is a Democrat, as are its two senators. But chunks of it are very conservative, such as the reliably Republican 26th congressional district in western New York. It spans the suburbs of Buffalo, across hundreds of acres of farmland, to the suburbs of Rochester. Registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats there by around 30,000. George Bush handily won the district in 2004, though he lost the state by 19 points. In 2008 it was one of only four New York districts that voted for John McCain over Barack Obama. Chris Lee, the Republican who had represented the district since 2008, won a whopping 74% of the vote at the 2010 mid-term election. He stepped down in February after a gossip website posted shirtless pictures he had sent to a woman he had met on Craigslist.

The special election (as Americans call a by-election) to fill the Craigslist congressman’s empty seat will take place on May 24th. Jane Corwin, a wealthy conservative member of the state Assembly, should on past form be a shoo-in, but recent polls indicate she has an unexpected battle on her hands. According to one recent poll Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, is just a few points behind Ms Corwin, and another shows her in the lead. Jack Davis, the self-financed independent “tea-party” candidate, is also performing solidly in the polls. At first glance it appears that Mr Davis, a former Republican who also ran (unsuccessfully) for office as a Democrat, may be siphoning support away from Ms Corwin.

But the fall in Ms Corwin’s support could be more because of her endorsement of Paul Ryan’s proposal to replace Medicare, the public health-care scheme for the elderly, with diminishing government subsidies for private insurance. Her opponent, Ms Hochul, has made Medicare the main issue of her campaign. “We can alter the national debate with one election,” she says. Voting for her, she claims, would send a message to Republicans in Washington. She has received the backing of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, which previously campaigned for the Republican who represented the area until 2008. Her message is going down well in the district, where almost a quarter of voters are over 65 and almost two-thirds are over 45.

A loss in the 26th would be a huge embarrassment for the Republicans, suggesting that many other seats might be at risk in 2012. So the party has been pumping money into the race, and has also started to send in the heavy artillery. Eric Cantor, the House majority leader, campaigned for Ms Corwin last week, and John Boehner, the speaker of the House, appeared at a Corwin fund-raising lunch on May 9th. He said there that the “Democrats are hoping they can steal this election so they can continue to move their agenda, which is more taxes and higher spending.” This got loud jeers from the faithful, but it remains to be seen whether ordinary elderly voters will agree.

The turnout tends to be low in special elections, as elsewhere; but politicians can usually depend on older voters to make the effort. In the 26th district, the voting intentions of the elderly have never been more important.

The Daily News Online
By Roger Muehlig
May 6, 2011, 12:41 AM

BATAVIA — Democrat Kathy Hochul dismissed being portrayed as a tax-and-spend liberal as “politics” and said she’s a pragmatist who is open to good ideas no matter which side of the political aisle they come from.

“You can’t label me anything,” Hochul said during a stop at The Daily News Thursday.

Hochul, the Erie County clerk, is in a race with Republican Assemblywoman Jane Corwin, independent businessman Jack Davis and Green Party candidate Ian Murphy for the 26th Congressional District seat vacated by Chris Lee in February.

The generally GOP district stretches across seven counties, including all of Genesee and Wyoming, most of Orleans and parts of Erie, Niagara, Monroe and Livingston. At least one poll has Corwin leading, but Hochul only a few percentage points behind.

Hochul, who lives in Hamburg, said her priorities, if she gets to Washington, would include getting the federal debt under control, doing everything she can to help small businesses and protecting a Medicare program that is being scrutinized for change.

Unlike her Republican opponent, Hochul said she would not support turning the healthcare program for senior citizens and the disabled “into a voucher program.”

“You can’t decimate a program that seniors have come to rely on,” she said.

Medicare, she said, “can be streamlined without being decimated.”

A good start, she said, would be reigning in high medical costs in general. “Let’s get that under control.”

Hochul, who is married to Western District U.S. Attorney William Hochul, said she opposes tax breaks for the wealthy, but thinks raising taxes on Americans making more than $250,000 a year is going too far. She’d see a much higher threshhold.

There are a lot of small business owners making $200,000 a year, she said.

“These are people who just want to grow their business. I don’t think they should be treated like they’re super wealthy.”

Hochul also mentioned opposing then-Gov. Spitzer’s plan to allow illegal aliens to have driver’s licenses and later opposing Gov. Paterson’s plan to raise money by requiring new state license plates.

She didn’t take a strong position on wind turbines. “Well, they’re here,’’ she said.

But if so, she thought that host communities should benefit, perhaps from reduced power costs.

Hochul also spoke of streamlining the guest worker program for farms, promised to look out for farmers that she said are being highly impacted by rising fuel costs, and said she would be a “strong advocate for this area” in general.

“I just want a chance to prove I’m a different sort of Democrat,” she said.

Hochul doesn’t live in the district, but said that hasn’t been much of a campaign issue and that she would move in as soon as she could if she is elected.

“We’ll be ready to go as soon as possible,” she said.

The New York Times
By Raymond Hernandez
May 6, 2011

Only weeks ago, top Democrats appeared to have all but written off a special election for a Congressional seat in the suburbs of Buffalo. After all, Republican voters vastly outnumber Democrats in the district, and the Republican candidate, Jane L. Corwin, a well-liked state assemblywoman, seemed to be a shoo-in.

Then along came Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin. Mr. Ryan, a top House Republican, released a plan calling for the most extensive overhaul of Medicare since it was created.

That, it seems, has significantly changed the contest in New York’s 26th Congressional District.

After leveling a barrage of attacks against the proposal put forth by Mr. Ryan, the Democratic candidate, Kathy Hochul, has tightened the race considerably, even as her Republican opponent remained supportive of the plan, perhaps out of concern that distancing herself from it would alienate conservatives.

The shifting dynamics of the race, which have emboldened top Democrats and their allies, underscore the intense reaction to Mr. Ryan’s proposal, the centerpiece of a budget that House Republicans voted to approve in April to address the nation’s long-term financial problems.

More than that, though, the May 24 special election is suddenly shaping up as the first electoral test of the Republican agenda — and of the likely themes in the battle next year between both major parties for control of the House.

“The Republican vote to end Medicare has moved the needle in this race,” said Representative Steve Israel of Long Island, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “The Republican should be running away with this. Instead, she is clinging to a minuscule lead.”

But Republicans argue that Democrats are deliberately distorting what the Ryan plan would mean for Medicare. They also contend that Ms. Corwin’s message — about the need to rein in spending and the national debt — will ultimately win the day.

“They are trying to scare seniors,” Matthew Harakal, a spokesman for Ms. Corwin, said.

Mr. Ryan’s proposal would transform Medicare into a program that subsidizes health coverage for older Americans, eliminating the direct payment for medical care that the federal government currently provides. In addition, the Republican plan would end the federal guarantee of health care benefits for retirees by turning Medicare into a grant program for states, leaving open the possibility that governors and legislatures would cut back in tough fiscal times.

The House Republican plan to fundamentally revamp Medicare has resonated in the 26th District, where a majority of registered voters are 45 or older. The district, which stretches from the western suburbs of Rochester, through dairy farming country, to small villages and towns northeast of Buffalo, is one of New York’s more conservative regions, with roughly 30,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats.

In the 2002 redistricting process, Republican leaders in Albany ensured that the district was packed with Republican voters to help Thomas M. Reynolds, an influential Republican who represented the district then, to maintain the kind of conservative voting record that would help him rise in Washington’s Republican hierarchy.

When Mr. Reynolds retired in 2008, he was replaced by Christopher Lee, a Republican businessman who won the seat handily. But Mr. Lee abruptly resigned in February after he e-mailed a woman a shirtless photo of himself that appeared on the Web.

Initially, the special election to replace Mr. Lee did not attract much attention outside the district, partly because Republicans were widely expected to hold the seat. John McCain defeated Barack Obama here in 2008, and the district has been in Republican hands for decades.

But last month, Ms. Hochul’s campaign sought to put Ms. Corwin on the defensive after Republicans in Washington approved the budget plan to overhaul Medicare. Over several days in early April, Ms. Hochul, the clerk for Erie County, which includes Buffalo, called on Ms. Corwin and Jack Davis, a millionaire businessman running with Tea Party support, to reject the plan.

Ms. Hochul ran a weeklong television advertising campaign accusing Ms. Corwin of backing an effort that would end Medicare while providing tax breaks to the rich.

But even as some House Republicans have started to express doubts about the wisdom of trying to push the Ryan plan this year, Ms. Corwin has vigorously defended it, arguing it places Medicare on sound financial footing. “This protects the Medicare program and ensures that there are benefits for future generations,” she said during a recent stop last month in Rochester, according to The Democrat and Chronicle of Rochester.

Still, Ms. Hochul’s message seems to strike a chord in the district, where the race has become much closer than experts in either party had expected. A recent Siena College poll of likely voters, for example, indicated that Ms. Corwin and Ms. Hochul are in a tight race. Ms. Corwin leads by only five points, within the poll’s margin of error.

The poll found that 59 percent of respondents said they opposed reining in federal spending by cutting entitlement programs like Medicare. Only 38 percent said they supported such spending cuts to trim the deficit.

Marsha Sherris, 61, a real estate broker in the district, seems to epitomize the challenge for Ms. Corwin. A registered Republican, Ms. Sherris said that she was troubled about the Republican Medicare proposal and that it might ultimately influence her vote in the special election.

“Maybe I would go Democrat,” Ms. Sherris said on Main Street in Williamsville. “We have to worry about the seniors. They are the ones who supported this country all this time.”

The race is complicated by the presence of Mr. Davis, a former Democrat who failed in his bid for the Republican nomination and is now running on the Tea Party line. While Mr. Davis appears to be draining support from both candidates, he is doing more damage to Ms. Corwin, according to Steven Greenberg, a polling expert for Siena College.

Republican strategists say that once Republican voters learn of Mr. Davis’s Democratic past, they will get behind Ms. Corwin.

But Ms. Hochul says the Ryan Medicare plan has had a significant effect. “The Paul Ryan budget has given us the opportunity to show the different priorities between the candidates,” she said. “It’s created a clear choice.”